AFL top eight predictions updated

By Ben Jensen Again under duress I’ve had a go at predicting the top eight after round 23; remarkably, without any reference to the previous week’s prediction I’ve came up with the same top eight but in a different order. I predict the big losers will be Carlton and St Kilda – which really hinges on Richmond beating Hawthorn this round, and similarly the Western Bulldogs beating Hawthorn in Tasmania in round 23. This may well be a flawed prediction given the Hawks are in pretty good form winning four of their last five matches and it would mean the Saints lose three on the trot, to test the sensitivity I changed the Saints to beating the Lions and the former still missed out.

The big swing matches that will make the difference to the top four are:

• St Kilda v Brisbane, round 22 (Docklands) – we predicted Brisbane but aren’t confident
• Sydney v Collingwood, round 22 (SCG) – Sydney should win this but we wouldn’t bet on it
• Brisbane v Melbourne, round 23 (Gabba) – Yet again we’ve randomly selected a winner (Melbourne)
• St Kilda v Sydney, round 23 (Docklands) – We think the Swans will go all out to secure a top four spot, but the Saints have it all to play for and will they really drop three in a row?

In short the Swans really need to win both of their matches which are both a challenge – playing the Saints at their home ground then the Magpie juggernaut at the SCG. Melbourne are looking OK to fall over the line while the Cats have a very easy run home, even if they lose to the Suns this weekend, which we wouldn’t be shocked at, they are likely to finish on top with almost a bye in round 23 against the Eagles. The Dockers? They’ll easily account for the Eagles this weekend but they rely on sides above them dropping matches to get back into the top four, and may have blown it being beaten at home by the Swans and Demons either side of the draw against Richmond.

Speaking of Richmond they’re in Mark Philippoussis ‘dangerous floater’ territory, along with the Bulldogs. Should the Blues or Saints sneak in instead, they’ll be easy-beats. Regardless of where they finish on the ladder we expect the Magpies to make or come very close to the grand final, most likely against the Cats.

Give it a crack yourself, visit the ‘Squiggle‘ website: https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/